This project set out to determine how to identify when people would drop out of a long running loyalty scheme.

Through exploratory analysis it was found that members of the scheme followed a similar pattern of behaviour post sign up for the scheme. Whilst the behaviour nearly always followed a similar pattern the length of time over which the pattern would run was variable.

It was however possible to identify the key behaviours that indicated the start of the decline that would ultimately lead to non participation in the scheme. This allowed the client to identify those likely to lapse and communicate with appropriately to re-invigorate their membership at this critical time.